Jun 112013
 

Rob Chudzinski6. Cleveland Browns
Head Coach: Rob Chudzinski
2012 Record: 5-11
2012 Offense: 302 points scored, 24th in points, 25th in yards (19th passing, 24th rushing)
2012 Defense: 368 points allowed, 19th in points, 23rd in yards (25th passing, 19th rushing)

 

Key Additions
Head Coach Rob Chudzinski , LB Paul Kruger, CB Kevin Barnes, DE Desmond Bryant, QB Jason Campbell, QB Brian Hoyer, WR Davone Bess, WR David Nelson, TE Kellen Davis, K Shayne Graham, LB Quentin Groves, CB Chris Owens, RB Dion Lewis, DE Barkevious Mingo, CB Leon McFadden

Key Losses
WR Josh Cribbs, K Phil Dawson, LB Scott Fujita, RB Brandon Jackson, WR Mohammed Massaquoi, LB Kaluka Maiava, DB Usuma Young, DB Sheldon Brown, TE Alex Smith, S Ray Ventrone, TE Ben Watson, DE Frostee Rucker

Why 2013 will be better
The Browns placed an off-season emphasis on defense, signing free agent linebacker Paul Kruger away from Baltimore. Kruger and D’Qwell Jackson now form the backbone of a solid linebacking corps, providing no rush for the Browns to work rookie Mingo into the rotation. The switch to a 3-4 front will see Desmond Bryant, Phil Taylor, and Ahtyba Rubin playing with their hands on the ground. On offense the Browns have improved their receiving corps, where the Browns are counting on castoffs Bess and Nelson to complement Josh Gordon, who will miss the first two games of the season for a drug policy violation (and seems to be one mistake away from losing a year), and Greg Little. Both Bess and Nelson are capable receivers, with Bess catching 61 passes in 2012 and Nelson accomplishing the same in 2011 before an injury made his miss all but one game last season.

Why 2013 will be worse
The Browns have not resolved the quarterback position, with a second year starter on a short leash in Weeden, a journeyman veteran who has started seven games over the past two seasons in Campbell, and a former Tom Brady backup who has started one NFL game in Hoyer. Suddenly the decision not to trade up for RGIII begs another glance. Trent Richardson had a mixed rookie season with 950 yards all 11 touchdowns, but a net of only 3.6 yards per carry. He is a durable back, but the offense on the whole simply lacks a lot of pop, and averaging more than last year’s 18.9 points per game is going to be a challenge. On the defensive side, the secondary has seen significant change, and Joe Haden anchors a unit that probably won’t scare too many teams. Rookie corner Leon McFadden appears set to start opposite Haden, while the safeties will be second year man Tashaun Gipson and TJ Ward.

Outlook
There is something to be said for bringing in Norv Turner to be the offensive coordinator. Turner seems better suited to this role than that of head coach, and if anyone is going to get Weeden playing well enough to make the Browns compete it will be Turner. Adding weapons at receiver doesn’t hurt, and having a solid offensive line gives the Browns the potential to surprise some teams. On the other side of the ball, switching to a 3-4 with an improved linebacking corps gives defensive coordinator Ray Horton the weapons he needs to try and disrupt opposing offenses. If the Browns can apply consistent quarterback pressure, they may be able to offset any concerns that exist in the secondary. The Browns appear capable of winning anywhere from 4 to 9 games this season, but I’ll place the over/under at 7. Consider it a good first step in banishing the “Factory of Sadness” moniker that is now the team’s unofficial slogan.

Jun 102013
 

Gus Bradley2. Jacksonville Jaguars
Head Coach: Gus Bradley
2012 Record: 2-14
2012 Offense: 255 points scored, 30th in points, 29th in yards (21st passing, 30th rushing)
2012 Defense: 444 points allowed, 29th in points, 30th in yards (22nd passing, 30th rushing)

Key Additions
Head Coach Gus Bradley, LB Geno Hayes, DT Roy Miller, RB Justin Forsett, DB Alan Ball, DT Sen’Derrick Marks, WR Mohammed Massaquoi, CB Marcus Trufant, DT Brandon Deaderick, DT Kyle Love, T Luke Joeckel, S Johnathan Cyprien (6/13: QB Mike Kafka)

Key Losses
DT CJ Mosley, T Guy Whimper, S Dawan Landry, CB Aaron Ross, T Eben Britton, DB Derek Cox, LB Daryl Smith, RB Rashad Jennings, FB Greg Jones, DT Terrance Knighton, DB Rashean Mathis, DB William Middleton, WR Laurent Robinson, RB Montell Owens

Why 2013 will be better
After winning only two games last season, it probably can’t get worse. Bradley has brought in new defensive parts to replace a slew of departing players, but none of these is a proven blue-chipper and several have previously under-achieved. Still, Miller promises to help stuff the run, while Ball and Trufant should provide leadership to the five defensive backs that the Jaguars scooped up by the Jaguars in the draft. Blaine Gabbert’s job is hanging by a thread, so he has plenty of motivation to improve on his 77.4 passer rating (1,662 yards, 9 TD, 6 INT), while the consistently pedestrian Chad Henne waits in the wings. While the Jags have not brought in a quarterback to compete with Gabbert, it is entirely possible that Jacksonville will start the year with Henne at the helm. Maurice Jones-Drew returns from a lost 2012 campaign (once again proving that players who hold out more often than not get hurt or fail to perform), yet still led the team in rushing in only six appearances. However, it is an open question as to how effective he will be this coming season, and he is currently mired in controversy over his role in an off-field incident. This makes the signing of Forsett an important safety net for the club. Any improvements on offense will be a boon for the defense, which was last in the league in quarterback sacks last season. Assuming any offensive improvement at all in 2013, the Jaguars should be capable of winning four to five games this season, a marked improvement over 2012 that still nets the team a top five draft pick next spring.

Why 2013 will be worse
Gabbert will fail to improve while Hennne won’t be much better. MJD won’t return to form, and the defensive patchwork won’t be an improvement over last season. The Jags win two games again and secure the top pick in the draft. Hmmm… maybe that isn’t worse.

Outlook
Despite the lack of good quarterback play, the Jaguars couldn’t run the ball in 2012, nor could they stop the run. While Gus Bradley is a tremendous defensive coach who helped turn around the Seattle Seahawks, it’s going to take a lot more than his brain power to turn around this woeful franchise. The addition of Joeckel secures the left tackle position for the foreseeable future, but the team lacks playmakers after Jones-Drew. Justin Blackmon and Cecil Shorts both showed promise last season, but the team needs to see both players surpass their production from last season. This will be hard for Blackmon to do since he will miss the first four games due to a suspension. Hopes for anything beyond a four win season should be regarded as wildly optimistic.

UPDATE (6/13): The Jags have claimed QB Mike Kafka, who was released by the Patriots earlier this week. Kafka adds an interesting wrinkle at quarterback, but doesn’t change the overall fate of the team for 2013.