Jun 122013
 

Mark Sanchez and Rex Ryan9. New York Jets
Head Coach: Rex Ryan
2012 Record: 6-10
2012 Offense: 281 points scored, 28th in points, 30th in yards (30th passing, 12th rushing)
2012 Defense: 375 points allowed, 20th in points, 8th in yards (2nd passing, 26th rushing)

Key Additions
RB Mike Goodson, RB Chris Ivory, G Willie Colon, DL Antonio Garay, LB Antwan Barnes, S Dawan Landry, G Stephen Peterman, WR Ben Obomanu, CB Dee Milliner, DT Sheldon Richardson, QB Geno Smith, G Brian Winters

Key Losses
CB Darrelle Revis, S Yeremiah Bell, DL Mike DeVito, WR Braylon Edwards, RB Shonn Greene, TE Dustin Keller, S LaRon Landry, LB Bart Scott, DT Sione Pouha, G Brandon Moore, G Matt Slauson, WR Chaz Schilens, LB Bryan Thomas, QB Tim Tebow, S Eric Smith

Why 2013 will be better
Define better? If by better we mean that the Jets will no longer have a circus sideshow in Tim Tebow, then yes it will be better. Otherwise, I’m not so sure. But since this is the part of the article where we look for bright spots, let’s start with running back Chris Ivory, who appears ready to replace the steady but enigmatic Greene. There are question marks after Ivory, with Goodson appearing to be a personal train wreck. Still, Ivory looks like the real deal and will be getting the bulk of the snaps this season. Given a weak passing game, the Jets should once again rank in the top twelve rushing attacks. The offensive line is beginning to come together, with Nick Mangold, D’Brickasah Ferguson, Austin Howard, Willie Colon, and Brian Winters eyeing starting roles, and the group should be able to open holes for Ivory, but it is in pass protection where this group must improve, as the Jets ranked 30th in pass protection last season, yielding 47 sacks, along with one very memorable butt fumble. However, the Jets are very thin on the line after the five starters, so health will be a key to success. On defense, the team looks to improve on its sub-par performance in 2012 with Rex Ryan taking a more direct role in defensive meetings and play calling, and looks to be a better group. Muhammad Wilkerson is a dominant presence at end, and looks to be flanked by Sheldon Richardson, who also looks like a beast. The only downside is that Quinton Coples will see an increased role at outside linebacker, which does not appear to cater to his strengths. Kendrick Ellis, Garay, and Damon Harrison round out this solid unit.

Why 2013 will be worse
The quarterback controversy that consumed 2012 has a new face in 2013 in rookie quarterback Geno Smith. It remains to be seen who will win the competition, as Sanchez has the early lead but Smith has the bigger potential upside. That said, I am unconvinced that Smith’s game will translate to the NFL. The Jets gambled on a quarterback in a weak quarterback draft, and I suspect will lose this bet in the long run, just as they are losing their gamble on Sanchez. In an offense happy league, the Jets enter the fray with one arm tied behind their collective backs. The wide receiving corps is weak and wounded, with Stephen Hill dealing with a knee injury, and Holmes’ status is unknown for the start of the season. Jeremy Kerley is finally healthy, and could see his numbers increase in 2013. Jeff Cumberland takes over at tight end in place of Keller, but will have a difficult time filling Keller’s shoes when Keller was healthy. Hayden Smith may also see time, but this is not a group that will cause panic in opposing defenses. The linebacker unit will be interesting to watch with Coples moving outside, with David Harris and Demario Davis inside and Pace playing the opposite side. Pace was brought back after being cut, and struggles to apply pressure to the quarterback, resulting in the Jets bringing in Barnes, a pass rush specialist. Harris was one of the worst starting inside linebackers in the league last season, who despite good tackling numbers is a significant liability in pass coverage and who also had a poor year against the run. While the Jets’ defense will likely still be in the top half of the league this season, the linebacker group doesn’t appear to be as solid as it has been in years past. Losing Revis in the secondary doesn’t help matters, especially since Milliner is struggling to even get onto the field. Milliner is a natural talent but was a risky pick for the Jets, who need Antonio Cromartie to step up in a big way this season. Cro may not be able to remember his kids’ names, but he is a solid corner talent, and the drop-off should not be significant. Kyle Wilson started opposite Cro last season and may not be able to hold off Milliner for a starting nod once Milliner is healthy. At safety, the Jets replaced one Landry with another, but overall the safety group has slipped from last year’s one year rentals, both of whom performed admirably.

Outlook
Only the most blindly loyal Jets’ fans will think this team has a chance of competing in 2013. New GM John Idzik tore the team apart to deal with Mike Tannenbaum’s salary cap debacle, but the Jets didn’t go as far as the Raiders did in simply blowing things up in order to start again. That’s why David Harris and Mark Sanchez still have jobs despite spotty performances (to be generous) and big salary cap hits. The Jets’ defensive front will be able to improve its performance against the run, but pass rushing issues have not been resolved, and a weakened secondary means their performance against the pass can be expected to slip. On offense, the quarterback drama promises to undo 2013 before it begins, and a lack of quality receivers who can’t stay healthy won’t help matters. Chris Ivory may be carrying a heavy load this season, but thankfully for the Jets he appears to be up to the task. In the final analysis the Jets got rid of Tim Tebow, but the circus remains firmly planted in town. I subscribe to the view that this is Year One of Idzik’s rebuilding plan, and that Year Two will be sans Rex Ryan and Mark Sanchez, among others. The Jets will battle the Bills for third place in the AFC East, and can be expected to win anywhere from three to six wins in 2013.

UPDATE: As noted in the comments, I missed the addition of Kellen Winslow, Jr. I must admit to not being real high on him as a solution at tight end. He is a beast of an athlete, but his attitude has gotten him run out of more than one town. The Jets are not a team I would send a reclamation project to, but he might none the less be helpful. Winslow has not signed yet, but he and Mike Sims-Walker have been trying out for the team.

Jun 102013
 

Gus Bradley2. Jacksonville Jaguars
Head Coach: Gus Bradley
2012 Record: 2-14
2012 Offense: 255 points scored, 30th in points, 29th in yards (21st passing, 30th rushing)
2012 Defense: 444 points allowed, 29th in points, 30th in yards (22nd passing, 30th rushing)

Key Additions
Head Coach Gus Bradley, LB Geno Hayes, DT Roy Miller, RB Justin Forsett, DB Alan Ball, DT Sen’Derrick Marks, WR Mohammed Massaquoi, CB Marcus Trufant, DT Brandon Deaderick, DT Kyle Love, T Luke Joeckel, S Johnathan Cyprien (6/13: QB Mike Kafka)

Key Losses
DT CJ Mosley, T Guy Whimper, S Dawan Landry, CB Aaron Ross, T Eben Britton, DB Derek Cox, LB Daryl Smith, RB Rashad Jennings, FB Greg Jones, DT Terrance Knighton, DB Rashean Mathis, DB William Middleton, WR Laurent Robinson, RB Montell Owens

Why 2013 will be better
After winning only two games last season, it probably can’t get worse. Bradley has brought in new defensive parts to replace a slew of departing players, but none of these is a proven blue-chipper and several have previously under-achieved. Still, Miller promises to help stuff the run, while Ball and Trufant should provide leadership to the five defensive backs that the Jaguars scooped up by the Jaguars in the draft. Blaine Gabbert’s job is hanging by a thread, so he has plenty of motivation to improve on his 77.4 passer rating (1,662 yards, 9 TD, 6 INT), while the consistently pedestrian Chad Henne waits in the wings. While the Jags have not brought in a quarterback to compete with Gabbert, it is entirely possible that Jacksonville will start the year with Henne at the helm. Maurice Jones-Drew returns from a lost 2012 campaign (once again proving that players who hold out more often than not get hurt or fail to perform), yet still led the team in rushing in only six appearances. However, it is an open question as to how effective he will be this coming season, and he is currently mired in controversy over his role in an off-field incident. This makes the signing of Forsett an important safety net for the club. Any improvements on offense will be a boon for the defense, which was last in the league in quarterback sacks last season. Assuming any offensive improvement at all in 2013, the Jaguars should be capable of winning four to five games this season, a marked improvement over 2012 that still nets the team a top five draft pick next spring.

Why 2013 will be worse
Gabbert will fail to improve while Hennne won’t be much better. MJD won’t return to form, and the defensive patchwork won’t be an improvement over last season. The Jags win two games again and secure the top pick in the draft. Hmmm… maybe that isn’t worse.

Outlook
Despite the lack of good quarterback play, the Jaguars couldn’t run the ball in 2012, nor could they stop the run. While Gus Bradley is a tremendous defensive coach who helped turn around the Seattle Seahawks, it’s going to take a lot more than his brain power to turn around this woeful franchise. The addition of Joeckel secures the left tackle position for the foreseeable future, but the team lacks playmakers after Jones-Drew. Justin Blackmon and Cecil Shorts both showed promise last season, but the team needs to see both players surpass their production from last season. This will be hard for Blackmon to do since he will miss the first four games due to a suspension. Hopes for anything beyond a four win season should be regarded as wildly optimistic.

UPDATE (6/13): The Jags have claimed QB Mike Kafka, who was released by the Patriots earlier this week. Kafka adds an interesting wrinkle at quarterback, but doesn’t change the overall fate of the team for 2013.